Hello September!

It’s hard to believe September is already here. Summer trading is now behind us and we can expect volatility and volume to pick up.

I am not getting warm and fuzzies from the charts. Indices and stocks alike look tired and many individual charts look toppy and on the verge of potential technical breakdowns. I guess this is to be expected from a “market in correction” as IBD puts it, but the question is whether we are gearing for additional downside or if the arrival of September will bring some relief to the bulls.

We need to wait and see how the market starts off the new month. If the S&P stays above 1625 it could have another move higher toward the 1650-1660 area. Otherwise, it is likely to have a test of the 1600 level.

LONG Setups:

  • ANAC – still in a constructive bull flag, will look for a move through 10.30 and extension toward 11
  • IMAX – bullish bounce off 20dma on Thursday followed by decent continuation on Friday, expecting it to continue moving toward 28
  • INVN – somewhat sloppy on daily but a breakout through 18 is still a possibility. If it fails to clear this level again, bulls beware as this could indicate the beginning of a longer consolidation
  • SFUN – big momentum move on very high volume, expecting continuation through 42 and breakout to new highs
  • TGT – ugly looking daily, but seems to be finding support around 63, will be looking for an oversold bounce toward 64-65
  • TSLA – monster momentum and relative strength, appears totally oblivious to the rest of the market, now appears to be flagging for a move to 190-200

SHORT Setups:

  • ACXM – bearish consolidation with a close under 50dma, if it cant bounce here next support isĀ aroundĀ 24
  • AKAM – toppy/tired daily with a close under 20dma and 46, next area of support is around 50dma
  • AVG – another toppy/tired setup, if it can’t bounce or hold 50dma, possible retest of 20 level
  • BCOR – having a hard time staying above 20 and its 50dma, next area of support in the 19-19.50 zone
  • BIDU – keeps getting rejected from 140 and daily chart beginning to look like an H-S pattern with a neckline around 133. Neckline failure could result in a move to 123-125
  • FNSR – another toppy/tired setup, next area of support is around 19 and 50dma
  • ICE – and another. Next support area is around 175
  • IRBT – bearish reversal and a close under 20dma, setting up for a possible retest of 30.80-31
  • NUS – flat slightly rounded top on daily, failure of 82 could take it to 78-80
  • PCYC – possible double top on daily around 119-120. Failure to hold 110 could take it to 100-102
  • QCOR – first close under 20dma since July. Daily chart still in clear uptrend but should 66 fail it could be setting up for a retest of the 60 level
  • ULTA – bearish reversal/engulfing bar on higher volume with a close under 50dma. Failure to hold 98-99 could lead to a retest of 95 level and possibly 200dma
  • WWW – another toppy/tired setup, should 56 fail 54 is the next major area of support
  • YHOO – flat but tired looking daily, failure to stay above 26.80-27 could have it start drifting lower toward 24-25
  • YY – another tired/toppy setup, having a hard time staying above 40 and a bearish reversal on higher volume on Fri. Should 39 fail, possible test of 50dma is next

Swing and position trader. Portfolio manager. Market technician. Former long/short hedge fund manager and prop trader. 20 years of market experience. You cannot succeed in this business without understanding and embracing risk. Opinions are my own.

Posted in Long Setups, Short Setups

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